Don’t Judge a Book by the Cover: an Analysis of Italian Tax Revenues after Adjusting for Discretionary Measures

The performance of tax receipts in Italy during the period 1978-2006 is analysed through the relationship between the growth of revenue and the evolution of the macroeconomic framework. Series of actual tax receipts are adjusted to take account of discretionary measures, transformed into implicit tax rates, and then broken down into the structural components. A regression analysis of the trend element shows that the performance of tax revenue depends not only on the main variables used in forecasting models, but also on a number of factors, some of which (interest rates, oil prices, the output gap, and inflation) have a direct impact on implicit tax rates. Other factors (the share of profits of banks and listed companies, the proportion of energy consumption in total spending, and purchases of durable goods) indirectly effect the incidence of taxation by causing shifts in the tax base among sectors with different opportunities for tax evasion. JEL Classification: C22, E62, H2.